DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY

Dealing with uncertainty:

• Strategic uncertainty, which has far reaching implications, is a key construct in strategy formulation. A typical external analysis will emerge with dozens of strategic uncertainties. 
• To be manageable, they need to be grouped into logical clusters or themes. It is then useful to assess the importance of each cluster in order to set priorities with respect to Information gathering and analysis. 
• Sometimes, strategic uncertainty is represented by a future trend or event that has inherent unpredictability. Information gathering and additional analysis will not be able to reduce the uncertainty. In that case, scenario analysis can be employed.
•  Scenario analysis basically accepts the uncertainty as given and uses it to drive a description of two or more future scenarios. Strategies are then developed for each. 
• One outcome could be a decision to create organizational and strategic flexibility so that as the business context changes the strategy will adapt.

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